Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk of HIVin Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

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In most countries in the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa, HIV is largely concentrated in sub-populations whose behavior puts them at high risk for contracting and transmitting HIV, such as injecting drug users, commercial sex workers and men who have sex with men. Estimating the size of these sub-populations is important for assessing overall HIV prevalence and designing effective interventions. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the sizes of local and national HIV at-risk populations. It incorporates multiple commonly used data sources including mapping data, surveys, interventions, capture-recapture data, estimates or guesstimates from organizations, and expert opinion. The proposed model is used to estimate the numbers of injecting drug users and female sex workers in Bangladesh.


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